Exploring Iran’s President Raisi’s Visit to Pakistan: Trade, Tensions, and Diplomatic Relations

Why is Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi visiting Pakistan?

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi embarked on a three-day trip to Pakistan with the aim of discussing regional and bilateral relations. This visit comes in the wake of recent hostilities between Iran and Israel, which raised concerns of the Gaza conflict expanding into a larger regional confrontation.

During his visit, Raisi is scheduled to engage in discussions with top Pakistani leaders, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The primary focus of these talks will be to mend ties between the two nations following the tit-for-tat missile attacks that occurred in January.

In addition to meetings with political figures, reports from local media suggest that Raisi is also set to meet with General Asim Munir, the head of Pakistan’s influential military. The Pakistani military holds significant sway in both political and economic spheres within the South Asian nation, making this meeting an important aspect of Raisi’s diplomatic engagements in Pakistan.

What’s the agenda of the trip?

Raisi arrived in the capital city of Islamabad on Monday, marking the beginning of discussions aimed at enhancing economic, border, and energy ties between Iran and Pakistan.

A statement released by the Iranian presidential office emphasized Iran’s commitment to bolstering relations with Pakistan as part of its neighborhood policy. The statement outlined the agenda for the visit, highlighting discussions on a range of issues including economic and commercial matters, energy cooperation, and border concerns.

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Echoing this sentiment, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on Sunday, emphasizing the need for both countries to work towards improving bilateral ties. This visit serves as a platform for high-level discussions and negotiations to strengthen the partnership between Iran and Pakistan in various domains.

“The two sides will have a comprehensive agenda aimed at further strengthening Pakistan-Iran ties and enhancing cooperation across various sectors including trade, connectivity, energy, agriculture, and people-to-people contacts,” the statement emphasized.

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According to the statement, the Iranian president is scheduled to visit major cities such as Lahore and Karachi, focusing on bilateral relations and trade ties.

Mosharraf Zaidi, a partner at advisory services firm Tabadlab and former adviser to the Foreign Ministry, highlighted in a written statement to Al Jazeera that Raisi’s visit is seen as an effort to secure support from Islamabad and Rawalpindi (military leadership) for Iran amidst its escalating conflict with Israel.

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Zaidi further noted that Iran’s strategic thinkers recognize Pakistan’s current domestic political crisis and growing economic challenges, which may impact Pakistan’s level of engagement in the ongoing Middle East conflict.

What’s the status of Iran-Pakistan ties?

Iran and Pakistan have a history of strained relations, often accusing each other of failing to control armed groups operating along their shared border.

Tensions between the two nations heightened in January when Iran conducted air strikes across the border into Pakistan, resulting in the tragic deaths of two children. The Iranian state media claimed the strikes targeted two bases of the armed group Jaish al-Adl. In response, Pakistan fired a missile into Iranian territory and recalled its ambassador from Tehran.

However, both countries swiftly moved to de-escalate the situation. Tehran promptly dispatched its top diplomat to Islamabad in an effort to mend ties. During discussions, Iran and Pakistan agreed to jointly confront the “menace of terrorism,” particularly in the border region. Prior to President Raisi’s visit, Tehran and Islamabad had engaged in talks about combating terrorism.

“At that time, Pakistan had a caretaker government. Iranians had indicated that after the new government came into power, there could be a visit to repair the relationship and rebuild confidence,” explained Muhammad Faisal, a PhD Scholar at the University of Technology Sydney specializing in Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Why is the Pakistan-Iran relationship vital?

Foreign policy analysts in Pakistan have emphasized the importance of re-engaging with Iran despite recent border tensions.
“Having a normal, stable relationship with Iran has been of utmost importance for Pakistan, especially given its troubled borders with India and Afghanistan,” noted veteran Pakistani diplomat Maleeha Lodhi in an interview with Al Jazeera following the January border incidents.

The two countries have been working towards strengthening their economic ties, with bilateral trade currently exceeding $2 billion. According to Faisal, an analyst interviewed by Al Jazeera, there is significant informal trade between Iran and Pakistan, including liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and crude oil. Additionally, Iran supplies electricity to Pakistan’s Balochistan province and other border regions.

In May 2023, Prime Minister Sharif and President Raisi inaugurated the first border market at the Mand-Pishin border crossing, aiming to facilitate trade between the two nations.

Despite the cultural and religious ties shared between Iran and Pakistan, including the annual pilgrimage of tens of thousands of Shia minority members to Iran, Tabadlab’s Zaidi noted that these bonds have not translated into substantial people-to-people exchanges or robust trade.

“Trade is mostly conducted outside the formal domain, and travel is primarily restricted to religious tourism,” Zaidi stated.

President Raisi, on the eve of his visit, set a target of $10 billion in bilateral trade, expressing that the current economic relations between the two nations do not match the strength of their political ties. This target was an increase from the previously set goal of $5 billion in bilateral trade last August.

A key topic of discussion during the meetings may include the stalled Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project, which aims to export Iranian natural gas to Pakistan. The project has faced opposition from the United States, which has imposed sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program.
Faisal from the University of Technology Sydney mentioned that the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline might be on the agenda during the talks between the two leaders.

How has Pakistan responded to Iran-Israel tensions?

On April 14, a day after Iran’s strikes on Israel, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry released a statement urging de-escalation and describing the events as “the consequences of the breakdown of diplomacy.”

The ministry statement highlighted the “grave” implications when the UN Security Council fails to fulfill its responsibilities in maintaining international peace and security.

Pakistan emphasized the importance of international efforts to prevent further hostilities in the region and called for a ceasefire in Gaza. “It’s critically urgent to stabilize the situation and restore peace. We call on all parties to exercise utmost restraint,” the statement concluded.
Pakistan does not have diplomatic relations with Israel and does not recognize the country.

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“In recent years, there has been speculation about pressure from GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries on Pakistan to alter its Palestine policy. However, there is no indication that such a change is imminent,” noted Zaidi.